Dry & mild weekend; when will it snow?

11:50 AM, Thursday, October 29, 2015

We are shaping up for another dry weekend with above average temperatures. It should be pretty decent for Halloween activity.  A weak storm moving through tomorrow (Friday) may bring some showery rain (snow level about 8000 or 8500 feet). But for the Front Range region, the storm is very minor and some areas are likely to stay dry. The best chance for rain is out on the high plains as you go toward Kansas and Nebraska.

For the lower elevations of the Front Range we are getting well beyond the average date for the first measurable snow (0.1 inch), which is October 15th for Boulder.  During the most recent 67 years (1948-2014) at the Boulder climate station the first snow didn’t occur until November 13 times (19% of the record), but never later than November 15th.  I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I recall that Denver’s records are very similar, and Fort Collins made it all that way to December at least once.

A storm system late next week may initially increase the chances for rain, but whether it will evolve in a way to bring snow is uncertain. It’s the next possibility for the season’s first snow, but certainly not a confident forecast at this point.

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