1 PM, Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Although forecasts today are easily shown to be more accurate than as recent as 10 years ago, today’s storm reminds us that weather features are complex moving targets. Under and over-forecasting makes forecasting a compelling challenge, and keeps me humbled.
We knew it would intensify into a potent storm overnight, but the forecast position was a challenge. The most prolonged heavy snow occurs when the center of circulation passes to the south. We expected this one to pass through the Denver-Boulder area which would put the heaviest snow up in southern Wyoming. In reality, the primary circulation passed just south of Colorado Springs as it moved eastward. That put the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins corridor in the sweet spot (or sour spot if you’re a snow scrooge). Cheyenne got it too, but it wasn’t so unexpected there.
There is mainly light snow left as of 1PM except for a few pockets of moderate snow mainly east of I-25. That should continue to taper off and end later this afternoon and evening.