8:30 AM, Friday, July 1, 2016
The atmosphere over the central Rockies is about as moist as it gets for July 1st. Using a value called precipitable water, this morning’s 1.20 inches of precipitable water at Denver is nearly twice the average of 0.65 inch for July 1st.
Moisture is an important ingredient for heavy rain, but it’s not the only ingredient. For heavy rain we also need rising motion either through convection as the sun warms the air, or through organized upslope (easterly) flow into the mountains. Because there are a lot of clouds around today limiting the sunshine and the upslope flow is not that organized, that may put a limit on the coverage of heavy rain. But I think we should expect that some local areas will receive heavy rain and some flooding while most areas will get at least some rain.
Saturday should trend toward less cloudy and less cool, but still with the chance of thunderstorms. Sunday and Monday should see much more seasonably warm weather with a small chance for thunderstorms late in the day.