Wet, mountain snow, mix in lower elevations

12:15 PM, Friday, March 31, 2017

Changes from my forecast yesterday are that I’m a little more inclined to go with the lower end of the snowfall forecasts that I gave yesterday. The heaviest snow reports are likely to come in from the southern Front Range (west of Pueblo down through the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos). But you should still be prepared for significant wet snow this evening and tonight along the mountains and foothills from Colorado Springs northward.

Synopsis

The storm system in the four corners region this morning was at peak intensity and will be weakening as it moves across northern New Mexico through Saturday. The current observations (satellite and radar) suggest that the most likely period for some heavy precipitation is between late afternoon and about midnight, with more intermittent precipitation and dry intervals late tonight and Saturday.

Changeover to snow in the lower foothills and plains

Some pockets of heavier convective precipitation may speed up the changeover to snow late this afternoon, but most areas probably won’t change over until after dark. The result will be highly variable accumulation potential. Snow may accumulate rapidly including some on the roads during brief periods of heavier snow this evening, while other nearby areas may stay wet with very little snow.

Most likely snowfall

Above 7000 feet: 7-15 inches

6000- 7000 feet: 5-10 inches

Below 6000 feet: 0-6 inches

  • Cheyenne, Boulder, Broomfield, Castle Rock, Colorado Springs, and Denver’s west and south sides are a little more likely to be in the 3-6 inch range.
  • DIA, Longmont, Fort Collins are a little more likely to be under 3 inches.

Update at 2:55PM Friday:

The heavy bands do not appear to be coming together as expected. Will probably see the lower end of the snowfall ranges listed above.

Again late Monday?

The next storm in the series is due to begin late Monday.  It’s looking snowy all the way down to the plains, but keep in mind that the last couple storms evolved a bit differently than the 3-4 day model guidance suggested.

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