Monthly Archives: January 2019

Next cold front tonight

9:30 AM MST, Sunday, January 27, 2019

After a mild and windy day along the Front Range, a cold front is likely to drop temperatures at least 25 degrees for Monday. Several areas of snow are likely to develop late tonight and early Monday morning resulting is some intermittent snow. Accumulations, where they occur, should be mainly 2 inches or less. The best chance for 2 inches is in the Palmer Divide region and the south suburbs of Denver.

 

During the next 4-5 days there will be an impressively cold arctic air mass to our east that is likely to set some historic record lows in the upper Midwest. To the west of Colorado/Wyoming warmer than average weather will dominate. Eastern Colorado (including the Front Range region) is likely to be a little more under the influence of the cold side of the pattern through midweek, although not nearly as extremely cold as it will be a little farther to the east. There appears to be a good chance of the warm side of the pattern taking over by the end of the week.

 

 

Some snow around this morning

6 AM MST, Thursday, January 24, 2019

An area of snow is causing some wintry road conditions this morning from Longmont northward. That area is slowly sagging south. Many parts of the Denver Metro are likely to see a bit of snow in the next few hours, ending this afternoon. Accumulations should be minor, a trace to 2 inches, but it could slow traffic down a bit during the morning commute.

 

A dry weekend is expected with the next cold front and chance for snow Sunday night or Monday.

Lunar eclipse tonight; next storm holds off until Monday evening

9:30 AM MST, Sunday, January 20, 2019

A total lunar eclipse will occur this evening beginning and 9:41 PM and lasting until 10:43 PM. There is a lot of upper level Pacific moisture that could result in some cirrus clouds, but it’s worth a look if we are in a clear area at that time

The next Pacific storm will move through late Monday. Snow may begin impacting mountain areas (especially the west side) Monday afternoon, but probably hold off until evening along the Front Range and eastern plains. Once again there is not likely to be much easterly (upslope) flow, so the heaviest snow won’t necessarily be near the foothills. Rather, there is likely to be some north-south gradient with the heaviest along the north-facing slopes of the Palmer Divide.

 

3-6″ for the mountains and the Palmer Divide region, including Castle Rock and the far south suburbs of metro Denver.

2-4″ for the Denver-Boulder metro.

0-2″ for northern Boulder county and up into eastern Larimer and Weld counties.

2-4″ Cheyenne area

1-3″ Colorado Springs

 

The snow should be mainly overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning.

 

Colder Friday, Warmer by Sunday, Colder with Snow Monday

Noon MST, Thursday, January 17, 2019

A cold front tomorrow won’t turn the weather terribly cold, but it will be colder than today with some clouds around. It might still be fairly mild in the early morning along the east slopes and high plains. Significant snow will be limited to the mountains and west, so be careful if you are travelling that way tonight or Friday. For the Front Range region, there may be some areas of light snow around Friday, but that best chance for minor accumulation (0-2 inches) is south of Denver.

 

After a chilly start on Saturday expect a dry weekend with low elevation temperatures returning to the 50s on Sunday.

The next cold front and fast-moving Pacific storm system may start bringing areas of snow to the mountains Sunday night. For the Front Range region, expect colder weather on Monday and there is a better chance with Monday’s storm for some widespread snow developing, at least light amounts.

Icy evening in places, then dry weekend

3:00 PM MST, Friday, January 11, 2019

Intermittent snow is likely into the evening today, mainly along the west and south side of metro Denver and the Palmer Divide. Although additional accumulation won’t be very large, nightfall and temperatures dropping below freezing may cause some accumulation and black ice on roads this evening.

 

The weekend should be dry and seasonably cold, but perhaps with some air stagnation along the urban corridor.

 

At 3PM at my home in South Boulder there has been 1.2 inches of snow and 0.54 inches of liquid. That’s a remarkable snow-to-liquid ratio for a January storm. About 0.15 inches of liquid fell as rain early this morning. It’s more like an April storm!

Some snow Friday

9:00 AM MST, Thursday, January 10, 2019

A weak but intensifying storm will move through the central Rockies on Friday bringing some snow. The snow is likely to be a little wetter than usual for January with a gradient ranging from very little in the plains of eastern Larimer and Weld County, to some moderate amounts (exceeding 6 inches) in the Palmer Divide and foothills.

The most likely accumulation

There is a lot of variability due to the timing of storm intensification and whether there might actually be a little rain at the start. The most likely accumulation is 4-8 inches for the foothills and Palmer Divide area, 2-4 inches for most of the Denver-Boulder metro, 0-2 inches in Longmont, Fort Collins, Cheyenne, and Colorado Springs. The timing is mainly during the day on Friday, possibly beginning by sunrise and continuing into the evening. This outcome has about a 60% chance of occurring.

The low end possibility

The GFS, a reliable U.S. based model, has been consistently showing that the storm won’t really get going until it’s east of Colorado and thus the snowfall should be rather minor. Amounts with this model should range from 3-6 inches in the foothills, mountains, and Palmer Divide regions, 1-2 inches in the Boulder-Denver area and little or nothing in Longmont, Fort Collins, Greeley, and Cheyenne. This outcome has about a 30% chance of occurring.

The high-end possibility

Some of the mesoscale models based on the WRF have been more likely to begin intensifying the storm as it moves east through the central Rockies and tapping some subtropical Pacific moisture as it intensifies. These solutions suggest a 6-10 inch snowfall in the Denver area south of I-70 and extending north along foothills to Broomfield and Boulder. The amounts trail off rapidly to just 1-3 inches for northeast Boulder County, Larimer, and Weld counties. The trend seems to be away from this so this outcome has about a 10% chance of occurring.

The weekend

Dry weather with seasonable temperatures. The air may be somewhat stagnant, so some haze along the Front Range urban corridor is likely.

 

 

 

Windy Sunday-Monday

9:20 AM MST, Sunday, January 6, 2019

My forecast from yesterday morning hasn’t changed except that the chance for some strong gusty west-northwest wind has increased for the Front Range region and adjacent plains. Today through Monday are likely to see some gusty downslope winds, especially in and along the foothills. The best chance for gusts exceeding 60 mph is on Monday.

 

Other than that, you should still expect some snowy stretches in the mountains and western Colorado today. There may be a lull tonight and then some additional intervals of snow at the high elevations on Monday. Totals of 6-10 inches are likely at some of the high passes, much less in the valleys.

The Front Range foothills and plains should stay dry with some cloudy intervals and gusty winds. Some sprinkles or flurries will make it as far east as the foothills before evaporating. Despite slightly cooler weather, lower elevations are still likely to reach 50 degrees, which is above average for January.