Monthly Archives: November 2019

Next storm: snow mountains, windy plains

8:30 AM MST, Thursday, November 28, 2019

Happy Thanksgiving!  Dry weather should continue along the Front Range into midday Friday. On Friday and Friday night much of the Colorado mountains will receive snow, with heavy amounts in the San Juan mountains. As a strong low pressure system heads up to the northern plains, there may be some squally showers in the eastern foothills and plains (snow or rain changing to snow) late Friday afternoon and night. Most of the Front Range urban corridor should get by with little or no accumulation, but some of the heavier squalls may produce an inch or two.

 

The main impact late Friday into Saturday for the Front Range will likely be strong wind gusts out of northwest (greater than 60 mph in some areas along the foothills). Hazardous blowing snow conditions are likely in some of the exposed areas of the foothills. In the lower elevations blowing snow can create local hazards, especially when the wind first arrives late Friday.

Update to snowstorm update

3:00 PM MST, Monday, November 25, 2019

Snow is developing quickly along the Front Range north of Denver and will continue spreading south through the evening. Be aware of rapidly changing conditions.

 

A number of forecast models become available in the early afternoon using the latest observations. Although the are no real changes to the big picture forecast, there is an update to the high end possibility. The chance for 20+ inches had increased to about a 1-in-4 chance in and near the foothills, mainly north of I-70.

Snowstorm update

11:40 AM MST, Monday, November 25, 2019

There are a few minor updates to the previous blog:

  • The storm is intensifying a little faster while still in western Colorado. This may help focus the highest accumulations in and near the foothills north of I-70, but significant accumulations are expected on the northeastern plains too.
  • East and southeast winds tonight (just above the surface) may favor Fort Collins and Cheyenne with the biggest snowfall rates. Northeast winds late tonight and tomorrow morning may shift the main focus to Boulder and the west side of Denver. Snow should taper off from northwest to southeast Tuesday afternoon and evening.
  • Blowing snow is likely to be an additional hazard, especially along and east of I-25.
  • Major impacts are likely through Tuesday at DIA.
  • I would not be surprised to see parts of I-25, I-76, and I-80 closed for a period of time in northeastern Colorado, southeastern Wyoming, and Nebraska.

 

Most likely accumulations

12-18 inches: Cheyenne, Fort Collins, Estes Park

9-15 inches: Boulder, Broomfield, Arvada, Golden

6-12 inches: DIA, Longmont, Denver, Aurora, Castle Rock

2-4 inches: Colorado Springs

Begins this afternoon in Cheyenne, late afternoon or early evening in Fort Collins, Boulder, and Denver.

Peak snowfall this evening through Tuesday morning, tapers off Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday-Sunday

  • Dry for the Front Range urban corridor Wednesday and Thursday
  • Some areas of snow, mainly light, in the mountains and the southern foothills on Thursday
    • Some moderate or heavy snow is possible in the San Juans of southwestern Colorado Thursday
  • Some areas of light snow or flurries possible along the Front Range Friday or Friday night
    • some local moderate or heavy snow possible near the higher passes of western Colorado Friday, especially the San Juans
    • valley rain or snow showers in western Colorado Friday
  • Probably dry Saturday-Sunday, but will update later in the week

 

Snowstorm Monday evening into Tuesday

1:15 PM MST, Sunday, November 24, 2019

A steadily-moving Pacific storm is likely to intensify Monday into Tuesday as it moves across southern Colorado and into Kansas. Snow, heavy at times, is likely Monday evening and into Tuesday morning from the Denver area northward to southeastern Wyoming. The snow and blowing snow may linger on the northeastern plains until Tuesday evening.

 

Accumulation

9-14 inches: Fort Collins, Cheyenne, Estes

7-12 inches: Denver, Lakewood, DIA, Broomfield, Boulder, Longmont, Nederland

5-10 inches: Littleton, Aurora, Castle Rock

2-4 inches: Colorado Springs

Blowing snow likely, especially along and east of I-25

This is not a storm where the greatest snowfall will necessarily be in and near the foothills.

 

Start Time (Monday)

Cheyenne: 1-3 PM

Fort Collins, Boulder, Denver: 3-6 PM

Colorado Springs, after 6 PM

** snow intensity may ramp up quickly Monday afternoon/evening

Wednesday-Sunday

Dry Wednesday and Thursday for the Front Range. Some areas of snow are likely in the mountains Thursday, especially the San Juans. There may be some areas snow statewide on Friday, mainly light, but I will update that later in the week.

 

 

Potential for significant snow late Monday into Tuesday

11:30 AM MST, Saturday, November 23, 2019

For those planning travels early next week for the holiday, there is potential for a significant snowfall between late Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, mainly from the Denver area northward. Details of the storm are still coming together, but early indications are that there is potential for 6-12 inches and a rapid onset of winter travel conditions Monday evening. I will update tomorrow.

Next chance for snow Monday; Thanksgiving outlook

11:30 AM MST, Friday, November 22, 2019

Saturday and Sunday should bring dry weather and slightly above-average temperatures for the Front Range region. Average afternoon temperatures for the Denver-Boulder area at this time of year are in the upper 40s. Monday afternoon or evening will likely bring the next cold front and areas of snow throughout the state. I’ll update that storm later in the weekend.

 

For Wednesday-Saturday next week a Pacific storm system is forecast to move slowly into the southwestern U.S. At this time it appears that the Front Range region will be dry on Thanksgiving (and the day before). In fact that storm might not bring any significant impacts to areas east of the continental divide during the holiday weekend. But it is too early to say that with confidence for the period after Thanksgiving. If you are travelling south and west, the holiday weekend will likely some some impacts from that storm in western Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah.

Colder Wednesday, rain, then snow

12:45 PM MST, Tuesday, November 19, 2019

A storm system moving across the southern Rockies will bring some heavy snow to the San Juan Mountains of Colorado and into northern New Mexico, but with lesser impacts for the Front Range urban corridor. It is likely the the Front Range region will get some accumulating snow, perhaps in two distinct periods Wednesday through Friday morning.

 

Rain is likely to develop below 7500 feet Wednesday afternoon and change to snow in the evening (all snow in the higher elevations). It looks like about 1-3″ below 7000 feet by Thursday morning, and 3-8″ in the higher elevations (greatest amount above 8500 feet). The storm won’t completely move through until Friday morning, so it is likely to remain unsettled through then. But it appears likely that we will be in a lull Thursday followed by another good chance for light snow (1-3″) across the region late Thursday and Thursday night.

 

The weekend looks dry. The next chance for snow should be late Monday or Tuesday.