8:20 AM MDT, Friday, July 24, 2020
One of the seasonal cycles that we look for each July is the Southwest monsoon (also called the Mexican monsoon and the North American monsoon). During this cycle intense thunderstorms form each day in the coastal mountains of Mexico and pump moisture into the atmosphere. That moisture gradually makes its way north in July and August into the southwestern U.S., sometimes as far north as Colorado, sometimes not that far. Late July and early August tends to be the peak time for monsoon moisture along the Front Range.
There has been a lot of westerly winds this month which has made for a weak or non-existent monsoon for the Front Range region. But today through early next week will likely see a couple intrusions of that monsoon moisture and more areal coverage of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
Long range forecast models suggest that by the last couple days of the month the Front Range will return to a hot and dry pattern. For now let’s hope for a some moisture for the local vegetation.
6:00 AM MDT, Monday, July 13, 2020
Today will be another hot day. There is a small chance of thunderstorms for the foothills and urban corridor, but the chance is greater across the eastern plains where a few severe thunderstorms will probably develop.
We will see a break in the heat on Tuesday. There may even be some areas of low clouds Tuesday morning along the foothills. There will also be a few showers or thunderstorms scattered around Tuesday afternoon. Don’t get too cozy with the cooler weather. Hot weather will likely return Thursday and Friday.
3:50 PM MDT, Thursday, July 9, 2020
It appears that this prolonged period of above-average temperatures is likely to hang on until next Tuesday. And a shift to cooler on Wednesday might be temporary.
Friday has the potential for being the hottest day in this stretch. Thunderstorms on the far eastern plains of Colorado this evening may send a cool outlow of air toward the Front Range tonight that lingers into morning. But it looks like drier and hotter air will push its way through the Front Range region by afternoon resulting in high temperatures in the 95-100 range for much of the urban corridor and eastern plains.
Saturday will probably be a little cooler but still at least 90 for most low-elevation areas and little or no chance for rain. Sunday and Monday have the potential to be very hot again, but with a possible spoiler. There may be some mid level moisture arriving. It won’t be enough to result in widespread rain, but it may cause some clouds. So although the potential exists for temperatures in the 95-100 range again, cloudier areas may top out in the low 90s.
1:00 PM MDT, Friday, July 3, 2020
I haven’t written in a while because the atmosphere hasn’t presented anything that departs much from typical weather for this time of year. That is still the case, but since it’s a holiday weekend and many of us will stay local, I thought I’d do an update.
Seasonal temperatures and the small chance of afternoon thunderstorms will be with us today through Monday. The best chance for thunderstorms today will be on the eastern plains, with only a very small chance along the foothills and urban corridor. Saturday and Sunday will probably bring a better chance for thunderstorms, although still small, for the Front Range region. Looking ahead, it’s possible that the second half of this coming week might get us into a real heat wave for the Front Range region.