12:50 PM MDT, Tuesday, August 18, 2020
There has been an increase in moisture in the middle part of the atmosphere, enough to result in the development of a few afternoon thunderstorms today, tomorrow, and Thursday, mainly in the mountains. Most of us will probably get by without any rainfall of consequence. A few isolated spots might get good and wet for a brief time.
Although it might seem the chance for rain is good given the fires, and it is, there is a down side. The lower atmosphere is dry and that can cause rain to evaporate before reaching the ground. The result is that some areas may get lightning and gusty winds, but little or no rain, resulting in new fires.
At this point it looks like the dry and hot pattern will continue through the weekend. Some of the longer range guidance from our weather models suggest a more substantial surge of moisture around 8-10 days from now. But that is far enough in the future that I wouldn’t bet on it just yet.