12:40 PM MST, Wednesday, March 10, 2021

What has changed

Although the areas of forecast uncertainty are mainly the same, here are some changes since my update yesterday.

There is a slight northward shift in the overall guidance. This means there is less chance for significant snow from Colorado Springs southward, and more chance for the biggest amounts in eastern Wyoming.

A slight warming of the atmosphere over eastern Colorado on Friday could mean that rain might play a role in the early stages.

The extreme guidance (3-6 feet of snow for the Front Range region) is more of an outlier solution now.

Initial precipitation

Before we get to the main event Friday night through early Sunday, it looks like there may be a period of snow (maybe a little rain) Thursday evening into early Friday. This could be significant around Cheyenne (3-6 inches), lesser amounts from Denver to Fort Collins (1-4″) and probably little or nothing south of Denver metro.

The main event, Friday night to Sunday

All of these rough estimates are for metro Denver northward.

10-20 inches (1-2 inches of liquid) urban corridor

20-36 inches in mountain towns (Evergreen, Nederland, Estes), with the highest amounts more likely as you go north

Lesser possibilities:

1. More northward shift of the storm will reduce snow amounts in Colorado, or
2. the less likely slower and farther south scenario comes through, resulting in more snow than the numbers above.

Daylight Savings

You may have to shovel with an hour less of sleep on Sunday morning!