10 AM MDT, Saturday, May 29, 2021
Hopefully you are not reading this blog right when it publishes, but instead you are enjoying the beautiful Saturday morning, which may be the nicest weather of the weekend. A cold front has moved through the Front Range region this morning and temperatures should level out or even begin to fall during this afternoon. Moist air behind the front will lead to showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening.
A storm moving through the Central Rockies late tonight through Sunday night will cause upslope (easterly) flow along the Front Range. The result will be a generally cloudy and cool period with at least one multi-hour period of steady rain or drizzle (wet snow above treeline). Temperatures on Sunday may struggle to reach 60 even in the lower elevations. Monday will probably see some breaks in the overcast after some low clouds and fog in the morning, and maybe some showers redeveloping in the afternoon.
Because precipitation will be rain in the foothills, be alert around recent burn scars for muddy water or rocks flowing onto the road during periods of heavier rain.
5:30 AM MDT, Friday, May 28, 2021
After a warm-than-average and dry Friday, the weekend will trend cooler and wetter, with that trend most obvious on Sunday.
The trend toward less warm will begin on Saturday accompanied by a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Sunday and Monday are likely to be cooler than average (no warmer than the 60s in the low elevations) with a good chance for afternoon and evening rain. In fact, Sunday could end up being a mainly cloudy and damp day.
The chance for rain on the West Slope is not a great, but even there some late day thunderstorms are likely to be scattered around.
12:15 PM MDT, Friday, May 14, 2021
We are in a pattern with a higher-than-average amount of atmospheric moisture over the Front Range region, but without an organized storm system, at least through the first half weekend. The result for today, Saturday, and Sunday is generally party sunny and dry mornings to early afternoons (except for some localized fog or low clouds in the early morning), and then a scattering of showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon through early evening. Not every location will get wet each day, but by Sunday night most places will probably see rain at least once.
By the end of the weekend there may be an organized, slow-moving storm system moving into the Front Range region that taps the moisture and leads to a more steady period of clouds and rain late on Sunday and/or on Monday. It’s not looking to be cold enough for snow except the higher elevations (above Nederland and Estes).
12:30 PM MDT, Sunday, May 9, 2021
The moist, cooler-than-average weather is likely to hang on until Wednesday, and it is likely to get wetter (and snowier) before it dries out. It looks like late Monday and Monday night may be the wettest period, and the period when the snow works its way to the lower elevations.
For today and part of Monday, expect cool weather with occasional breaks in the overcast, but also with some showers of thundershowers (rain below 6500 feet, snow above 8000 feet, and a mix between).
Late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning is when we may see some steady precipitation with the snow level lowering. Right now it looks like we should see 6-12 inches in areas above 7500 feet, and a highly variable 2-8 inches from 6000-7500 feet. In the lower elevations it looks like there will be enough snow after that changeover so that many areas will get 1-3 inches on vegetation, cars, and picnic tables.
There may be additional showers along with some periods of sun Tuesday and Wednesday, rain in the lower elevations. Warm weather is expected to return Thursday.
12:15 PM MDT, Friday, May 7, 2021
The weekend will see a cooling trend with a chance for showers or thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoons. Saturday should be cooler than today but still be rather springlike for most of the day, then Sunday will be cooler.
The real story is Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Another cold, wet storm may be moving through the Front Range region, and like last Monday’s storm, it may be capable of producing over an inch of liquid. Unlike last Monday’s storm, this one might be a couple degrees colder. If that happens, rain could change to snow even in the lower elevations. I will update later in the weekend.