Author Archives: mkelsch14

About mkelsch14

I work for the COMET Program at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. I am the NWS cooperative climate observer and the local CoCoRaHs network coordinator. I have an MS degree in meteorology from the University of Oklahoma, and a BS in meteorology from the State University of New York, College at Oswego.

Cool spell coming

5:45 AM, Thursday, June 22, 2017

 

After a couple days of record or near-record heat, today will be a little less hot. Then it will be much cooler Friday-Sunday. In fact daytime highs in the urban corridor may only reach the 70s Friday and Saturday, and nighttimes could drop into the 40s in some areas. If you are traveling west of the continental divide this weekend  the cool air mass won’t make as much impact in western Colorado.

 

Rain? We could sure use some along the Front Range. The best chance for showers or thunderstorms in and along the Front Range is late this afternoon and tonight. In fact, there could be a few local areas that experience a strong thunderstorm with hail. Even late tonight or early Friday there could be some redevelopment of showers as the cold Front pushes through. For areas that don’t get much tonight, that chance for rain becomes quite small again after Friday morning.

Very warm, slightly cooler, then warmer again

5:40 AM, Friday, June 16, 2017

Expect a very warm summer day today with little or no chance for rain and temperatures  in the lower elevations reaching around 90. A cool front on Saturday may arrive by early afternoon, but it is more likely to hold off until evening, so Saturday  is likely to be another very warm day. There may be a few thunderstorms around Saturday afternoon and evening, but there will be areas that get by with little or no rain.

 

After a slightly cooler but still warm Sunday, hot and mainly dry weather is likely to be the rule next week. The summer solstice is on Wednesday at 10:24 PM MDT, and the weather will feel like summer.

Slight Cool-down and Windy Tue-Wed

5:55 AM, Monday, June 12, 2017

Hot weather will be in place today and again later in the week, with a milder period Tuesday and Wednesday when low-elevation temperatures may hold to the upper 70s and low 80s. Those milder temperatures may be accompanied by a period of gusty west-northwest winds late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The best chance of those gusty winds is up near the Colorado-Wyoming border and in the Cheyenne area, but a period of gusty winds is possible along the Front Range and northeastern plains of Colorado too.

 

It will be generally dry other than a chance for a few thunderstorms around today.

Holiday Weekend Weather

11:55 AM, Friday, May 26, 2017

 

In a nutshell, not bad. Saturday will be the coolest of the three days with temperatures running a little below average. Saturday will also bring a chance for some showers or a thundershower, especially after noon. Sunday and Monday should be sunnier with near average temperatures for this time of year and very little chance for rain. Have a nice weekend.

Fast moving storm later today, above average snowpack

12:20 PM, Monday, May 22, 2017

We are in for some fast changes over the next week. It’s too early to tell what the holiday weekend will bring, but the current indications are that it may start out wet.

Today

And east-west band of showers and thundershowers is likely to move from the Cheyenne area this afternoon to the Colorado Springs area near or shortly after sunset. Denver and Boulder are likely to be impacted between 5 and 8PM. A bit of snow may occur above 7000 feet.

Tuesday-Saturday

Expect a dry midweek and much warmer on Wednesday. We will probably be in for a spell of unsettled weather Thursday-Saturday, with at least some rainy periods and cooler temperatures.

Snowpack

Last week’s storm boosted the snowpack in the South Platte drainage to 132% of average. While that isn’t exceptional, it does mean there could be a period of high water over the next month in Front Range rivers and creeks depending on weather conditions. A cool, moist period followed by hot weather could cause the melting to be concentrated over a short time period. Something to watch for…

Now for the freeze, then a nice weekend

11:55 AM, Friday, May 19, 2017

Now that the storm is winding down there are only a few bands of showers occurring over the plains. New showers may develop briefly during the afternoon, but overall there is a drying trend. New snow amounts in the mountains should be minor and any showers in the low elevations are likely to be mainly rain.

With partial to full clearing tonight we are likely to see frosts and freezes in many low elevation areas. Throughout this whole storm neither Denver nor Boulder have had any record low temperatures. There is a chance tomorrow morning. The record low in Denver is 31 and in Boulder it’s 27, both from 1931.

Next cold front

The weekend should be mild after a cold start on Saturday. There is a small chance for a shower or thundershower late Sunday. There is a better chance for showers late Monday or Monday night with the next cold front. That system is much less impressive than the one we just had, but I can’t 100% rule out the chance for another frosty morning in some of the usual cold spots on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Storm Update

12:20 PM, Thursday, May 18, 2017

The bad news is that the rain changed to snow in low elevations earlier than expected. The good news is that the melting rate is higher during the day and can balance the snowfall rate. But beware, the snow is coming in bursts and accumulation is occurring in lower elevation areas during the heavier bursts. More significant accumulation is expected in the mountains (especially north of I-70).

The precipitation is likely to become more intermittent later tonight and Friday and may even change back to rain Friday. The risk of tree damage in the lower elevations (where more vulnerable deciduous trees exist) remains and may be enhanced in some areas this evening where the heavier snow is occurring.

Most likely additional snowfall amounts (after noon on Thursday)

Above 6500 feet from I-70 northward: 8-16 inches

Above 6500 feet south of I-70: 4-10 inches (less as you go south from Pikes Peak).

Below 6500 from the Denver area north: highly variable trace to 6 inches (maybe more in Cheyenne and very little in Colorado Springs).

 

Watch for freezing temperatures tonight and again Friday night.